Montreal Canadiens Forwards: Fantasy Hockey Rankings

It’s the time of year when Fantasy Hockey drafts are taking place and everyone’s looking for that edge. The word “sleeper” begins to be used extensively, and optimistic as well as pessimistic predictions are made. Regardless of how well you did last year, you know one thing for certain, everyone begins the year with a shot to win it all.

When we look through the Habs roster we see the obvious choices which standout the most: Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban, and Andrei Markov. Some may even give some mid-round love to guys like David Desharnais who continues to get plenty of playing time. However, aside from the oh-so-obvious, everyone wants that guy who breaks out. We offered our three breakout candidates last week and will now head into a different direction with our fantasy hockey rankings, which includes a few sleepers.

We approach this by offering our top 8 forwards and will touch on our top 4 defensemen in another post.

9. Charles Hudon (Sven Andrighetto)

If you can pinpoint which Habs rookie that Michel Therrien will pick to man the wing on the 3rd line, you’ve got a crystal ball hidden somewhere. I’ve decided to put my money on Hudon because I believe he offers the best 2-way game the Habs can bank on. I have Andrighetto listed as well because with his time on the Habs last year giving him a taste for the NHL game, and being older, there’s a chance he beats Hudon for the first shot with the Habs.

There’s not telling how successful either Andrighetto, Hudon, or their other competition, Michael Bournival, would be as third line wingers, but there’s a good chance that putting up points on that line would also earn that player some PP time. What I can tell you is that it’s highly unlikely that any of them reach 40 points, and it’s more likely that they sit in the 30s in terms of points. Also, it’s possible neither makes the team and that both are sent back to the AHL as a result. If that happens, you can replace this spot with Dale Weise who is likely to inherit a lot of the playing time on the 3rd line.

8. Lars Eller

If I knew for certain that the EGG line would be reunited, I’d be more likely to put Eller in the top 6, but such are expectations this season. While he’s unlikely to be on the top 2 lines this season, I still expect a decent season points wise from this young centre. With better wingers to work with in Kassian and whoever earns the role on the other side, improved due to the arrival of Semin, Eller will get to feed the puck to someone with better hands and a nose for the net. Both of these should help him put up a career year in 2015-16, although you have to temper your expectations with 3rd line minutes.

He may not get 50 points this season, but in deeper fantasy league, he could be a nice stop-gap asset that could surprise if Michel Terrien does decide to pair him with Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher this season. Doing so would increase the chances he gets close to 50 points.

7. Zack Kassian

Feb 26, 2015; Buffalo, NY, USA; Vancouver Canucks center

Henrik Sedin

(33) (not shown) scores a goal on Buffalo Sabres goalie

Michal Neuvirth

(34) as he is screened by right wing Zack Kassian (9) during the third period at First Niagara Center. Sabres beat the Canucks 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

It’s really hard to claim that a 24-year-old will enjoy a career year after failing to make his mark on two other teams, but that’s exactly what I believe Kassian can do in Montreal. Size, toughness, and power-forward potential are all items that got him a look with the Sabres and Canucks. However, I don’t believe that either of those teams had as much expectation in terms of playing time and offensive potential as the Habs do this year.

There are a couple of things I want to point out when referring to expectations for Kassian this season:

Although he has 4 years in the NHL, he only has 1 full season under his belt (73 games). The other seasons were shortened for various reasons;
The one full season he had saw him in the penalty box way too often (124 PIM), something that was a result of how John Tortorella wanted him to play, not indicative of his ability as a forward. This is something he shares with Dale Weise, and something I expect to change in Montreal;
He has never received enough playing time to make his mark, 13:29 being his career high in ’12-’13. If he does find a role on the 2nd or 3rd line in Montreal, he will achieve new career high in playing time (15 minutes or more) and will be playing with much better players than he played with in either Buffalo and Vancouver; and finally
I have little faith in Alexander Semin becoming the sniper the Habs want him to be this season. Therefore, I believe the Habs will look to Kassian to help the PP out instead, giving him more time on the ice and more scoring chances as a result.

Overall, I believe that his size will be better used in Montreal and that the Habs view Kassian as more of an offensive threat than is previous teams did. There’s no reason to believe that he won’t get a shot to prove himself in Montreal and I expect him to realistically get 20 to 25 goals with the outside chance he could reach 30. That would depend on his PP time. As for points, I expect something between 45 and 55 points, depending on whether he plays on the 2nd or 3rd line.

6. David Desharnais

Usually under-rated, almost every league has a bunch of owners who forget about – or are unwilling to invest – in a player like Desharnais. Maybe it’s his size, or the lack of a higher ceiling, but for whatever reason I’ve seen leagues where he isn’t even drafted! With the love Michel Therrien shows him, he is as close to a guaranteed 40 points as you can get from a late rd pick.

However, this season things may change slightly. There’s a decent chance he may be traded while the Habs try to solve their PP issues, and there’s also a chance he gets bumped to the 3rd line if he struggles. Therefore, I expect owners to be more tepid than ever in drafting Desharnais.

Don’t look for him too early if your league rewards goal scorers more strongly than passers, but he’s worth a late investment in most leagues.

5. Alexander Semin

Feb 27, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; Carolina Hurricanes forward Alexander Semin (28) skates with puck against the Washington Capitals at PNC Arena. The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Washington Capitals 3-0. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Although expectations are extremely high when it comes to Semin’s arrival in Montreal, they should also be tempered with his age and the likeliness that he not perform at career high levels. Assuming he improves on his performance in Carolina due to a fresh start, we can expect Semin to approach or slightly exceed 50 points this season. Although that won’t make him a top 2 rd pick in your league, many owners will look to him as a potential sleeper in their leagues and expect 60 points or more, something he hasn’t done since 2009-10.

It’s hard to tell how chemistry will form between him and his line mates with the Habs and he definitely has the talent to exceed expectations, but if my hunch is correct and he slows down slightly I don’t think he’ll reach 60 points. Aim for him in the middle rounds, depending on how deep your league is, and temper expectations until you have some games to see his progress with the team.

4. Tomas Plekanec

Apr 24, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens center Tomas Plekanec (14) shoots on Ottawa Senators goalie

Craig Anderson

(41) during the second period in game five of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the first time I don’t have Plekanec in my top 3 Habs forwards in terms of points, mostly due to the expected emergence of our next player on the list. While Tomas hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, he is going to play the majority of the season at 33 years old and may not be paired with Max Pacioretty all season long. It’s quite possible that the Habs will pair him with Alexander Semin instead.

The PP has been an issue for a long time with the Habs and they’ve brought in some big bodies to help out. Kassian and Semin are both expected to get some PP time, and there’s a chance Plekanec winds up on the second unit instead of the top unit.

Either way, I think that his season will land somewhere between 2014-15 (60 points) and 2013-14 (43 points), or somewhere between 50 and 55 points.

3. Alex Galchenyuk

May 3, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman

Andrej Sustr

(62) defends against Montreal Canadiens center Alex Galchenyuk (27) in front of goalie

Ben Bishop

(30) during the third period in game two of the second round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports

Everyone’s favourite for a breakout season, I don’t see why we should be any different. Stronger, more experienced, and more poised, all of which should add to his already beaming abilities on the ice. When he puts his mind to making electrifying plays, Galchenyuk is one of the best players on the ice. The problem has always been for him to do so on a consistent basis.

Many people believe that a move to Centre would improve his output this season. That could be the case since it allows him to be more implicated in the play as it develops. However, if we assume that he can be either on the wing or centre, he needs to be able to produce at a high level to be worthy of a 3rd to 6th rd pick (depending on league depth).

I can’t say for certain whether or not he’ll land back on the EGG line with Gallagher and Eller or will be paired with Pacioretty and/or Semin. What I do know for certain is that he has improved line mates to work with. Instead of having to promote guys like Dale Weise to the top lines when needed, the Habs now have more depth up front and are likely to bring in one of their offensively skilled forwards. That, along with the hope of an improved PP and a better nose for the net – particularly in the playoffs – give me the ammunition to expect a season that will exceed 60 points from Galchenyuk.

Draft him when comfortable, don’t reach too early, but know that after this season, he may be an early round pick that becomes hard to deal for as he takes a major step forward in his career.

2. Brendan Gallagher

May 9, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Ben Bishop (30) makes a save against Montreal Canadiens forward Brendan Gallagher (11) during the first period in game five of the second round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

The single most under-rated fantasy player on this team, Gallagher almost reached 25 goals last year and did so while increasing his shots on net from 211 to 254. His shot % improved slightly from 9% to 9.4% so I fully expect that another increase in shots on net would result in an increase in goals. We saw this happen with Max Pacioretty at the same age (23) Gallagher will be this season. That year, Pacioretty’s shots on net increased to 286 on the year and he scored 33 goals as a result.

With the confidence Gallagher is gaining each season and the ability to play his heart out every single game, there’s no reason to believe he won’t take another step forward this season. I expect him to be paired with Galchenyuk all season long and that he’ll also break the 60 point mark as a result. In reality, you can interchange his expectations with Galchenyuk’s since they have similar potential. The edge that Gallagher has, and the reason he is higher on this list, is that he is often paired with Pacioretty and Plekanec on the top line and top PP unit. Therefore, I expect his stats in 2015-16 to be slightly better than Galchenyuk’s.

The one caveat to this is that both Gallagher and Pacioretty dealt with their shares of bumps and bruises last season, making them greater injury risks than Galchenyuk would be going forward. Who you take first depends a lot on whether it’s a re-draft league or a long-term dynasty style league. If it’s the latter, I may be inclined to take Galchenyuk ahead of Gallagher.

1. Max Pacioretty

May 6, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Montreal Canadiens left wing Max Pacioretty (67) against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period of game three of the second round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Montreal Canadiens 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The reigning scoring champion for the Habs, Pacioretty shot the puck more than ever last season, breaking the 300 shot mark. On a team that doesn’t have the offensive flair of others, he is counted on to be a steady scoring machine and has taken that role on successfully the last two seasons. With the possibility of another excellent shot (Semin) being added to the top-6 forwards in Montreal, he may be able to get more room on the ice, particularly on the PP.

If Max is going to reach the 40 goal mark for the first time in his career, he’s going to need more help from the young core the Canadiens now have. Whether it’s Galchenyuk or Gallagher, he needs another forward to raise his game for him to be able to raise his. If expectations are met and he does get the help he needs, I believe Pacioretty will reach the 40 goal and 70 point marks this season.

However, if the Habs continue to struggle on the PP and their young players fail to take the next step forward, another 60 to 65 point season can be viewed as his floor. You could do a whole lot worse. His 67 points last season were 21st in the NHL. If we include a slight upgrade to that due to the youth movement in Montreal getting more mature, we can expect his 70+ points to take him into the late teens, somewhere between 15 and 19. That doesn’t make Pacioretty a 1st rd pick unless you’re in an extremely deep league, but definitely puts him in the conversation when in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

As with Gallagher, and more seriously in his case, health is an issue for Pacioretty that has to be weighed against expectations for the round you’re drafting in. However, injuries are always an issue for all hockey players, whether they have a history or not. With 2 full seasons of mostly healthy hockey behind him, there’s no reason to expect things to change without a significant event taking place.

Summary

While the Habs haven’t been part of the conversation in terms of the highest scoring teams in recent years, there’s a lot of potential for that to change with a deeper lineup, youth, and maturity from their younger players. A full season with Jeff Petry manning the point along with Andrei Markov and P.K. Subban surely won’t hurt anyone’s statistics, and the injection of size in particular may help them get more second chances and more screened goals.

How quickly the team gels with its new pieces may be a driver of how much improvement the top scorers can reach, but I fully expect a bump in stats from the forwards listed above as the Habs focus a little more on scoring to support Carey Price.

It’s an interesting season for Habs players fantasy hockey wise for many of their players. Draft them wisely and they could help you win your league this season.

Good luck and hope this list is of some help to those looking for an edge!

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