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Montreal Canadiens: Playoff Urgency Required

By Mat Germain

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May 17, 2014; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens general manager

Marc Bergevin

gives a press conference before game one of the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the New York Rangers at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Montreal Canadiens: Playoff Urgency Required

Before we get into the meat of why I’m dissatisfied as a Habs fan I want to point out that I do believe the team has gone in a more positive direction under their current GM, I acknowledge that what Carey Price is doing is historic and makes everyone in Montreal look that much better, and I do believe they have a chance to be an improved team this season if their moves pan out or a young player comes through for them. With this in mind, here is the main reason I’m mostly dissatisfied this offseason.

If I could get one message through to Marc Bergevin and the Montreal Canadiens it would be this one,

“It’s not enough”

As a lifelong Habs fan, I’m tired of fans looking to the past in order to relive the glory days. And by glory days I mean when the team actually got somewhere when it made the playoffs. I’ve got some startling statistics to bring up in making my argument that simply tweaking this roster simply isn’t enough. We need more. We deserve more. And we require management to display the same sense of urgency that fans feel after a long line of playoff drought.

Here are the numbers from the last 16 years of playoffs (2004-05 was a lockout year).

  1. Habs did not make the playoffs 6 times (38% of the time);
  2. Habs lost in the 1st rd 4 times (40% of the time they made the playoffs);
  3. Habs lost in the 2nd rd 5 times (50% of the time they made the playoffs);
  4. Habs lost in the 3rd rd once  (10% of the time they made the playoffs); and
  5. Habs have not made 1 Finals appearance in these 16 years.

The last two are particularly depressing. Moving on…

The following are the teams the Habs beat in the playoffs:

  1. Boston Bruins: 4 times
  2. Ottawa Senators: once
  3. Pittsburgh Penguins: once
  4. Washington Capitals: once
  5. Tampa Bay Lightning: once

Isn’t that the saddest looking list of them all? In 16 years we’ve only managed to beat 5 teams?

The following are the teams that beat the Habs in the playoffs:

  1. Boston Bruins: 2 times
  2. Tampa Bay Lightning: 2 times
  3. Carolina Hurricanes: 2 times
  4. Philadelphia Flyers: 2 times
  5. New York Rangers: once
  6. Ottawa Senators: once

This all adds up to:

  • 16 playoff series losses
  • 8 playoff series wins; and
  • 6 non-playoff appearances.

Essentially, on a total season basis, it’s a 26% success rate.

Is that what we Habs fans should be satisfied with? I hope not.

The good news is that Marc Bergevin isn’t responsible for the long lacklustre performance in Montreal. Thus far, he seems to be able to get some pieces that have a decent impact on the team in the playoffs. But is it enough?

No way.

The Montreal Canadiens are a storied franchise and their fans are as dedicated as you can find anywhere. The vast majority of those who follow sports in Montreal normally follow hockey first, whatever else second. We eat, live, and breathe the Montreal Canadiens and its world leading historical significance. Therefore, we all deserve the best. Let’s start there.

Who are the best teams in the NHL over that span? You can point to the Detroit Red Wings, the Los Angeles Kings, and the San Jose Sharks if you want. But, the best team since 2008-09 has been the Chicago Blackhawks.

Jun 18, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center

Jonathan Toews

(19) and right wing

Patrick Kane

(88) lift the Stanley Cup trophy at the rally during the 2015 Stanley Cup championship rally at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

I bring up the Blackhawks because in today’s NHL, with all of the spread talent and effort to make every team competitive, they’ve been able to work the cap and remain successful year-after-year. How have they done over the last 7 years, a much shorter span than what I just listed for the Habs?

Here are the numbers from the last 7 years of playoffs for the Blackhawks.

  1. Hawks did not make the playoffs 0 times;
  2. Hawks lost in the 1st rd twice (29% of the time they made the playoffs);
  3. Hawks lost in the 2nd rd 0 times;
  4. Hawks lost in the 3rd rd twice (29% of the time they made the playoffs);
  5. Hawks Won the Stanley Cup 3 times (42% of the time they made the playoffs)

I’m not going to go through all of the teams they beat, but needless to say that the West has some terrific teams and the Blackhawks have faced extremely strong opponents year-after-year.

This all adds up to for the Blackhawks:

  • 4 playoff series losses
  • 16 playoff series wins; and
  • 0 non-playoff appearances.

Essentially, on a total season basis, it’s an 80% success rate.

One of these things is not like the other. In less than half the years (7) I listed for the Habs (16), the Blackhawks (16) have won twice the number of playoff series that the Habs have managed to win (8). To say that their are polar opposites when it comes to playoff performance would be completely accurate.

So what’s the difference between these teams? In my estimation, only 2 things, and I’ll get to them after I compare some of the core players.

Here are the core players for each team (based on the last few years):

Top 6 forwards and top 4 defensemen for the Hawks:

Top 6 forwards and top 4 defensemen for the Habs:

The first thing I notice when comparing these two teams is how much deeper the forward core is in Chicago, this despite being forced to pay Toews, Kane, and Hossa a ton of money. Not only are all of their forwards skilled, but they are also big guys who can intimidate you in the playoffs and won’t be intimidated. Meanwhile, in Montreal, guys like Tomas Plekanec and David Desharnais in particular tend to disappear altogether when the playoffs come around. Of all the Habs forwards listed, only Brendan Gallagher showed up for the entirety of the playoffs while the remainder showed up here-and-there.

The second thing I notice is how much more talented overall the Habs D is. When you include Carey Price over Corey Crawford, the Habs have a slight edge in overall puck movement and skill on their blue line.

The question is what weighs more during the playoffs. Having two excellent lines to fill out your top 6 forwards, or having the strongest possible top 4 defensemen? Where would you spend your money?

Well, if you answered top 6 forwards, you win a prize because it’s exactly what the Blackhawks have done. The Habs have the 4 defensemen listed above locked up at a cost of $24.35 million this season (34% of the cap space). Meanwhile, the Hawks have spent $18.74 million on their top 4 (26% of the cap space).

On the forward end, it’s the opposite. The Habs only spent $23 million on their top 6 paid forwards, while the Hawks have spent $35.8 million. Price is only making $500K more than Crawford, so net-minding is about even in cost. (thanks to Capfriendly.com for the details)

Have the Habs defensemen been worth the investment thus far when it comes to playoff performance? And can you build a strong enough top-6 forward core without spending the money there instead? Therein lies the question my friends.

If I had to bet money today on which option is most viable heading into a playoff series, I’d take the Hawks option hands down every single time. It’s proven to be effective, so why wouldn’t I select it?

Instead of following this model and investing in their forwards, why did the Habs spend big on Jeff Petry and mainly ignore the elephant in the room: the lack of size and scoring within its top 6 forwards?

Mar 29, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; Carolina Hurricanes forward Alexander Semin (28) checks the Boston Bruins forward Patrice Bergeron (37) during the 3rd period at PNC Arena. The Boston Bruins defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 2-1 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

I know everyone will point to Alexander Semin and Zack Kassian as being the solutions, and I, more than anyone else, hope they’re right. But how much did those players cost the Habs?

  • Alexander Semin is costing them $1.1 million on a hope-and-dream contract; and
  • Zack Kassian didn’t cost the Habs anything. If anything, dealing for him paid for most of Semin’s contract and all of Kassian’s since the Habs saved $0.75 million when they dealt Brandon Prust who was set to make $2.5 million this season. When you add in the 5th rd pick, the Habs actually made out very well in the deal.

So if I get this right, the Habs couldn’t score, they spent money on bringing back a defensemen who also didn’t help them score, and they brought in 2 players who haven’t been able to score for years on other teams.

As I said above,

“It’s not enough”

Habs fans deserve better. Emulate the winning teams if you have to. The Habs have a strong enough core to make things happen if they just bring in the right forwards to compete in the playoffs. Until they do that and get the mix that can push them towards having a winning playoff series percentage consistently, all Habs fans should pressure Habs management to increase their sense of urgency. It’s required now. Carey Price and P.K. Subban are not going to be able to dominate forever, and health is a fleeting thing in today’s NHL.

I sincerely hope the Habs can make a deal or two to change their fortunes in the playoffs. Because as of today, I haven’t seen one move that isn’t identical to a prayer.

The last points I want to make are these:

  • One other ingredient the Hawks have that the Habs are missing is a Captain. If your players aren’t good enough, or excuse me, great enough, to be able to pick out 1 Captain, you’ve done something wrong and are missing something critical to a successful team. I don’t care if everyone feels Carey Price is the real Captain, whatever that means, the Habs need a Captain and they need one now. And finally;
  • The Hawks have a head coach who knows how to bring out the best performance from all of their players. Joel Quenneville is making $2.75 million and has shown to be one of the best investments the Blackhawks have made. On a yearly basis, despite having to re-work their lineup to remain under the cap, he manages to work with what he has and make them a perennial winner.

The Habs need to make more changes. They need one trade to make them a true contender. There needs to be a true Captain wearing the C on that club, helping Habs coaches keep guys focused and in unison, and the Habs need to figure out once and for all whether or not Michel Therrien is the coach that will make them successful in the playoffs.

Once all of those things are done and management shows the playoff  urgency that is required for them to be successful, it may be enough. Until then, its’ not enough.

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