Grading the Montreal Canadiens Offseason Moves

Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin had himself an active offseason and seems to be pretty much done, except for maybe a small cap dump, here are my grades for each of his moves.

For the sake of transparency, I will tell you straight away that I am a really big fan of the Canadiens’ offseason. I am among the many “Partisans” who have never before been this optimistic for a Habs season. I have been a fan of the team since the 2010 Halak/Cammalleri run, but have only been a die-hard, watch-every-game-I-possibly-can fan since the 2014 Price run.

And since that 2014 run, things have never looked anywhere near as promising for the Canadiens heading into a season as they do right now. The Habs were able to add some size and some scoring to their forward corps, some size and experience to their defence and some actual quality to their backup goaltending position.

Last year, I graded the Canadiens moves throughout the first week of free agency, and I will do a similar thing today, but will this time encompass every significant move of the entire offseason and will briefly analyze the draft. Without further ado, let us start with the acquisition of a (more than) competent backup goaltender.

Jake Allen Trade and Signing

Marc Bergevin was proactive right as the Canadiens’ offseason began, trading for Jake Allen with a  2020 3rd round pick going to St. Louis, as well as swapping a 7th in this past draft for one in 2022. The 3rd round pick was used to select Dylan Peterson, a prospect I actually like quite a bit. He’s a massive centreman who has bottom-6 NHL upside, I could very well imagine the Habs would have picked him in this slot, but getting Jake Allen instead can be seen as nothing short of an absolute win.

The Habs have prospects, the Habs have an abundance of draft picks; the team was, however, missing a reliable backup who can carry a significant load and ensure that Carey Price stays fresh and performs at his best. Allen was a starter in the NHL up until the start of 2019 when Jordan Binnigton stole the starting job and led St. Louis to a Stanley Cup victory. This past season, the recently-turned 30-year-old Allen played in 24 games and posted a .927 SV%; in the playoffs, he outperformed Binnington, recording a .935 SV% through 5 games. Throughout his NHL career, his SV% is of .913 through 289 games.

His contract, which carries an average annual value (AAV) of $4.35 million, was set to expire after this upcoming season, which is something that Marc Bergevin would not have found on the free-agent market, where all quality goaltenders have signed multi-year contracts. I believe that Allen’s addition alone will add 6-8 points in the standings, which is tremendous value for a third-round draft pick.

Jake Allen Trade Grade: A

Given that part of the appeal in acquiring Jake Allen was the single year left on the contract, I had not expected an extension to his contract before he even played a single game as a Hab, but the more I think about, the more sense it makes. Bergevin extended Allen for two years, so the goaltender is on the books for the next three seasons, on a contract with an AAV of $2.875 million.

While this does expose Allen to the Seattle expansion draft, the Canadiens did not need to extend Allen for the purpose of the expansion draft, simply qualifying Michael McNiven next offseason would have met the goaltender exposure requirement. However, Allen does make for an attractive option for Seattle when they build their team next season, especially if his good form continues. The low cap-hit for a perfect 1b goaltender is sure to be a tempting option.

Even if the Canadiens lose Allen after a season, this extension may save the team from losing a promising young defenceman like Victor Mete or a reliable third-liner like Joel Armia or Artturi Lehkonen to the Kraken, which would, in itself, be great for the Habs. And if Allen remains on the Habs, they will have themselves an excellent backup at an affordable cost, who bridges the gap until Cayden Primeau is ready to be a full-time NHL backup.

Jake Allen Extension Grade: A-

Joel Edmundson Trade and Signing

From one Stanley Cup-winning Blue to another; the Canadiens acquired the signing rights to Big Joel Edmundson for a 5th round pick in this year’s draft, which was eventually used (by LA following another trade) to select left-defenceman Ben Meehan, another prospect I like a lot; he’s an over-ager who has a solid motor, is a good skater and is very sound defensively. Still, he would not even crack the top-6 of the Canadiens’ left-defence prospect pool, and in return, the Canadiens get a player who will slot straight into the team’s top-4. Edmundson is a 27-year-old left defenceman who is 6’4″ and weighs 215 lbs.

Of course, this was purely for the right to sign the player; Marc Bergevin did not need to make this trade, he likely could have waited for October 9th and tried his luck then. The Habs’ GM knew that he wanted a big, reliable left defenceman and he signed Edmundson to a 4-year deal with an AAV of $3.5 million. Comparing Edmundson to the other defencemen available in free agency, and it seems like he was the only UFA defenceman of his mould.

While I much prefer the contract of a Chris Tanev, for instance, who got a 4-year deal with an AAV of $4.5 million, and is in my mind a significantly better player than Edmundson, he plays on the right side, where the Canadiens are rather comfortable. There just weren’t any other big, burly, mean left defencemen with Edmundson’s pedigree available in free agency, which leads me to believe, he would have gotten a bigger contract (think $4 to $4.5 million AAV) in free agency.

Despite this, however, I don’t adore the contract, especially given the Canadiens’ left defencemen that should breakthrough in the next few years and the flat cap. Still, this relieves pressure on Alexander Romanov to play in a top-4 role right off the bat. Edmundson’s addition improves the team, I just think that those $3.5 million could have been spent more wisely. I really hope the big man surprises me, just as Ben Chiarot did and carves out a signficant role with the team; plus, Edmundson could also be an ideal candidate for Seattle to pick in the expansion draft, which would free up quite a bit of cap space right when the Habs will need it.

Grade: B-

Jake Evans Extension

Marc Bergevin extended the contracts of three of the Canadiens’ higher-profile restricted free-agents, with the first one being Jake Evans. Evans, a 2014 7th round draft pick, has steadily progressed through his 4 years in the NCAA with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and in the past 2 seasons as a pro, spending most of his time with the Laval Rocket. He did, however, break into the Canadiens’ starting lineup following the trading of Nate Thompson at the trade deadline.

In 13 regular-season games, Evans notched two goals and an assist; more importantly, though, he looked good in his role. He is defensively responsible and has some offensive flair which made the previously dull fourth-line more enjoyable to watch. He has a fairly sturdy frame at 6’0″ and 185 lbs and is quite quick as well. In the playoffs, Evans entered the lineup for the opening game against the Flyers and kept his spot for the entire series, showcasing a simple yet effective game and even got a fair few shifts on the right side of the third line when injuries occurred. He signed a two-year extension with an AAV of $750 000, great value if he retains a role in the Habs lineup.

Grade: A

Noah Juulsen Extension

Noah Juulsen is the second of this group; he signed a 1-year $700 000 contract. I believe I speak for most Habs fans when I say that I really hope this is Juulsen’s year. He has had the absolute worst injury luck and was just starting to look like a legitimately good #5 defenceman when he was sidelined. This contract is undoubtedly a prove-it deal, and Juulsen should get a shot in the NHL this season.

Juulsen is now waiver eligible, so if his training camp is good, he will likely either find himself on the third pairing or as the 7th defenceman; and if he does get waived, he could very well get claimed and see some decent playing time wherever he lands. Whatever does end up happening, I just hope Juulsen stays healthy and gets to play this season.

Grade: B+

Victor Mete Extension

Last, but not least, is Victor Mete, who has lived a turbulent NHL career thus far, playing long stretches on the top pairing and then chunks of time on the third pairing, even playing on his off side during the play-ins/play-offs a few months ago. With the addition of Joel Edmundson and the arrival of Alexander Romanov, it is unclear where both he and Brett Kulak fit in the lineup. While Romanov might play a year in Laval, he could just as well prove his worth as an NHL defenceman.

Even if Romanov is not in the picture this season, Shea Weber, Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry and Joel Edmundson likely lock down the top-4 spots, leaving Mete and Kulak to fight with Cale Fleury and Noah Juulsen for the remaining two roster spots. Wherever Mete does end up slotting, his 1-year $735 000 contract is a bargain given what he has accomplished in the NHL as a 22-year-old.

Grade: A-

Jeff Petry Extension

I’m just going to say it, Jeff Petry is a #1 defenceman… he is the Canadiens’ #1 defenceman. Shea Weber is still phenomenal, but Petry’s proficiency at both ends of the ice and especially his ability in transition as a puck-mover make him this team’s top player on the back end in my eyes. Last season, he was tied for 18th in the league in points amongst defencemen with 40 in 71 games, including 11 goals, which is was tied for 15th in the league for defencemen.

Over the past three seasons, when looking at these same stats, Petry is 17th in points and 11th in goals. In this same span of time, when looking at the points/game totals of all NHL defencemen to have played at least 150 games, Petry is 26th with 0.54 points/game (a 44-point pace through a full 82-game season). Thus, his ranking in points and goals is a little bit inflated by other high-end offensive defencemen going down with an injury, but I would argue that as important as it is to consider points/game, being a durable defenceman who has missed just two games in the past 4 seasons has tremendous value as well, especially considering he will be 33 years of age when the season begins.

All this is to say that Jeff Petry, while perhaps not elite, is a very high-end offensive defenceman who skates brilliantly, is good in his own end, has good size and is phenomenal in transition, in other words, he is the prototypical modern defenceman and he was due for a big payday. I said in my final playoff report cards that I expected Petry to get a three-year deal in the $7-$8.5 million range because he is a tremendous defenceman. He ended up signing a four-year extension, which only kicks in for the 2021-22 season, with an AAV of $6.25 million, which is an amazing value if you ask me, I would much rather have Petry at this price than Torey Krug on the 7-year, $6.5 million AAV contract he signed in St. Louis.

Grade: A+

Karl Alzner Buyout

From one phenomenal defenceman to a not-so-great one. Karl Alzner’s torturous partnership with the Canadiens finally came to an end with the buying out of the final two seasons of his contract, which carried an AAV of $4.625 million. For this upcoming season, Alzner’s buyout cost stands at just shy of $4 million, which is a few hundred thousand dollars more than if he had been simply buried in the minors. However, the cap hit drops to $1.958 million in 2021-22 and will be $833 333 for the two seasons after that.

This frees up some cap for next year, which the Habs need, and its impact on the seasons after that is really rather small. However, the Canadiens may have been better off keeping Alzner for this season and then trading him along with some incentive to a cap-floor team for the final year of the contract, in order to save the $2 million in 2021-22 cap. Still, I don’t think this is a particularly important move either way and hopefully, Alzner can land on his feet elsewhere.

Grade: B-

Josh Anderson Trade and Signing

This is undoubtedly the most polarizing and difficult-to-grade move of the Canadiens’ offseason. I loved Max Domi as a Hab, but I also knew he needed to be moved this offseason. My initial reaction to the trade was: “Is this a troll account?” It was not, as it turns out, but my initial shock and apprehension faded away and I can totally understand the thinking behind the making of this trade, plus, I trust Marc Bergevin; especially when it comes to (essentially) one for one player swaps that are heavily criticized at the time of the trade.

While some who adore this trade for the Habs are calling Max Domi a third or fourth-line centre because of his usage in the play-in round against Pittsburgh, I am of the mind that Domi is a legitimate top-6 all-out attacking centreman. He is not good defensively or in the faceoff dot, but he is great in transition, is a very good playmaker and he puts up points. Don’t forget that Domi had the single best season of offensive production by any Hab since Alex Kovalev’s 35-goal, 84-point 2007-08 season; certainly, nothing to scoff at.

Considering this, I had really expected Domi to hold significantly more trade value than 1-goal, 4-point Josh Anderson; I mean, I wrote a Domi for Ehlers trade possibility article a month or so ago, where I had the Habs trading Cale Fleury along with Max Domi in order to acquire Nikolaj Ehlers. But what I realized was that I was not overvaluing Domi, but was rather undervaluing Josh Anderson. His last season was hampered by injuries, but his shoulder has fully healed and former athletes that have had the same injury were able to continue their respective careers just fine without ever aggravating the injury, which is a good sign.

Furthermore, Anderson steadily progressed in his three NHL seasons with 60+ games played, going from 17 goals to 19 to 27, nothing there seems like much of a fluke. And note that he was playing on the third line in Columbus during his 27-goal campaign, his regular linemates were Boone Jenner and Nick Foligno, rather than Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene, it is fair to say that the linemates he will have in Montreal will be the most highly-skilled players he’ll have ever regularly played with. Those two players seem likely to be Jonathan Drouin and Nick Suzuki, two phenomenal playmakers; so Anderson’s goal totals could skyrocket. Also, Anderson is 6’3″ and weighs 222 lbs, this guy brings size and a whole lot of speed as well.

However, there is real risk in the 7-year, $5.5 million AAV extension. This is a player who has yet to suit up for the Habs, so this is a big commitment. “Boom or bust” is an expression routinely used in terms of prospects, especially for draft-eligible players, but I think it certainly applies to the Josh Anderson acquisition and signing; this is Marc Bergevin swinging for the fences on a unique player: a big power forward who is reliable defensively and can score.

If everything goes right for Anderson, and for the Habs as a team, he could be a 35-goalscorer for the first 4 years of his contract and fall back toward 25 or 20 goals during the tail end. $5.5 million is a good price for a 25-goalscoring power forward, let alone a 35-goalscoring one. However, if Anderson fails to find chemistry with the current Habs lineup, suffers another shoulder injury or simply turns out to be a borderline 20-goal guy, this contract begins to look ugly real quick. I am, however, optimistic; we saw just how great Suzuki and Drouin looked next to big-bodied Joel Armia in the playoffs, with Anderson in that slot instead, the Habs could have a genuine first line.

Grade: B+

2020 NHL Entry Draft

I spent the month leading up to the draft doing a whole bunch of research on the draft-eligible prospects. I bought the Elite Prospects Draft Guide and read around 400 pages of its analysis, I read a boatload of articles from Habs Eyes on the Prize and other scouting sources and I watched every video from the Scouching YouTube channel concerning this year’s batch of prospects (I highly recommend the channel, Will Scouch makes genuinely high-quality analyses based on stats he tracks of the players himself). Basically, I ignored normal life for a month and became a prospect-researching caveman. In the end, I constructed a ranking of my 62 favourite prospects.

I did also watch at least 3 games of 29 of those 62 prospects, with 22 of those featuring in my top 31. This is all to say that while I am by no means an expert (like at all), I really did try to inform myself in preparation for the draft.

I really liked the Guhle pick, he is a robust 6’3″, 187 lbs left-defenceman. He is by no means flashy, but in the 5 games of his that I watched, I found him to be extremely impressive. His skating really is phenomenal; not “great skating for his size” good, straight up great skating. He gets around quickly and efficiently and hits like a truck, which is really entertaining to watch. I think he has an excellent chance at developing into a solid #3 defenceman, which is great value for the middle of the first round.

Think of him as Ben Chiarot in the offensive zone and in terms of physicality, but with far better skating and far better defensively. Chiarot is alright in his own zone, but his advanced stats shine a light on his defensive shortcomings. Guhle will have none of those, he will absolutely shut things down defensively. He’s exactly what playoff teams need in order to succeed, a modern smooth-skating defensive defenceman. Sure, the Habs’ prospect pool was already stacked at left defence, but Guhle was the best player available by a decent margin in my eyes (he was my 13th ranked prospect) and Trevor Timmins made the right call at 16th overall.

In the second round, the Jan Mysak (C) pick was an immediate win in my eyes, I really liked what I saw of him in Hamilton in the OHL, he actually has a really solid chance of forging a middle-6 NHL role, so again, great value. He was my #28. Luke Tuch (LW) is an interesting one, I didn’t watch any of his games and I really didn’t read all that much about him, so he didn’t feature in my top 62, but the more I’ve looked into him since the draft, the more I’ve liked the pick. His ceiling is low, but his floor is high. He is a pretty safe bet to become a 3rd or 4th line power forward, but given what the Canadiens have in their prospect cupboards right now, as well as the right wing additions they made this offseason, this is perfect for the team.

The fourth round was interesting, I like Blake Biondi (C) quite a bit, he excels in the dirty areas of the ice, plays a physical game and scores goals. Jack Smith (C) was an absolute unknown to me prior to the draft, but from what I gather, he’s a 200-foot players who skates really well and is a natural centre. Sean Farrell (LW/C) is the pick that I literally cheered for. I really like this player. He was the 36th ranked prospect on my board. His skating needs improvement, his shot is pretty weak but he is an amazing playmaker. His playmaking talent is NHL top-6 projectable at the very least, it is a skill that I think will forge Farrell a lengthy NHL career. It also doesn’t hurt that he really good defensively and excels on the PK.

I really know very little of the goaltender the Habs picked, Jakub Dobes. He played in the USHL and posted fairly similar numbers to Cayden Primeau in his own draft year, so there’s that. He’s very big and is a smart player from what I’ve read. The final pick of the Canadiens’ draft class is already making some waves on Twitter with his goalscoring acumen in the Russian junior league (MHL). Alexander Gordin (LW) was a prospect in his final year of draft eligibility and finally got picked. He is a slow and extremely clunky skater, but he plays a really smart game and scores a whole bunch of goals. Not at all a bad gamble at this stage of the draft.

As a whole, I like the Canadiens’ draft haul, though I do not love it.

Grade: B+

Tyler Toffoli Signing

In my eyes, Tyler Toffoli was the perfect free agency addition for this team; and for the price he cost, this grade is extremely easy for me to give. He signed a 4-year contract with an AAV of $4.25 million. Toffoli is a legitimate powerplay threat (!) and he scores goals, two areas of real need for the Habs. The Scarborough native is 28-years-old, so the four-year deal is perfect, and he adds a little bit of size to the Canadiens’ wings, standing at 6’0″ and weighing in at 197 lbs.

Toffoli shoots a whole lot and should excel with a great playmaker like Jesperi Kotkaniemi. While 30 goals is likely a bit optimistic for Toffoli, he is good for 25 and around 45 points. For me the important part of this acquisition is that we added a scoring threat rather than swapped one for another, as we did in the Anderson trade, and previously did in the Pacioretty and Galchenyuk trades. The formula had always been add but subtract. In signing Toffoli, Bergevin has simply added to the already decent depth in the top-9 forward corps.

Last season, Toffoli notched 24 goals, 2 more than any Hab had, and totalled 44 points in 68 games. Over the course of a full 82-game season, those totals would project to 29 goals and 53 points; that’s Gallagher-like production right there; I love this signing so much. Also, Toffoli can play a big role on the penalty kill and is all-in-all very responsible in his own zone and works hard, which fits right into the identity of this Canadiens team.

Grade: A+