Mar 12, 2012; Buffalo, NY, USA; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Tomas Kaberle (22) brings the puck up the ice as Buffalo Sabres center Derek Roy (9) defends during the first period at the First Niagara Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

We finish our look at even strength offense with the defensemen. As we saw in the first article, defensemen have very little direct effect on goals scored from their own goals scored.  Average shooting percentage for defensemen on 5 on5 is 4.01%, average shot proportion is 13.4%. With such a low proportion of the shots and a shooting percentage that is less then half then that of their forward compatriots, the average defenseman is scoring about 1 in 20 of his teams goals he’ll be on ice for. Unless they are at the very top of defensemen scoring they just don’t accomplish it enough to have a significant effect. Their effect on goals scored for their team should be through their forwards scoring.

Subban is the clear king of shots, but suffered from the worst shooting percentage. His first year he was above average there so I think his 2011-12 lack of goals was an abberation. I recall Dion Phaneuf went through a similar slump one season and rebounded solidly. Long term expect Subban to be clearly the best even strength goal scorer from the group. Subban combines a solid amount of team-mate shots with his own strong rate is a pretty good basis for team offensive performance. Normally a large amount of shots from a defensemen would be a recipe for weak team shot conversion rate, but Subban has generally played with a low shot defense partner in Gill or Gorges. Subban takes a large amount and proportion of shots but he seems to be making up for his defense partner’s lack of shooting opportunities rather than taking shots instead of his forwards.

Markov and Kaberle are pretty similar on offense. Both have solid shot producing and goal scoring rates but their most important contribution is how many scoring opportunities his team-mates are getting. Markov seems to be generally a bit superior to Kaberle but both look like quality offensive defensemen over these 3 seasons.

Diaz and Emelin have widely divergent goal scoring rates but that looks like a sample size issue, just a difference of 1 goal scored in a single season on even strength. Their shot rates are pretty much identical, its likely they are pretty much the same in goal-scoring terms going forward. The same process in reverse works for their team mates. Basically the same shot rates but Emelin had the better shooting percentage and thus goals scored. Long term unless one improves drastically expect pretty similar results.

Gorges is a fine defenseman overall but on the offensive side he seems to be clearly the weakest guy of the 6. Obviously the lowest shooter and goal-scorer with not particularly great team offense.

Looking at expected offense on even strength over 82 games and 16 minutes per game given team and individual goal scoring rates we see a clear separation between the top and bottom 3 defenders. Markov is the clear class of the field in terms of results and Subban and Kaberle are close. Diaz and Emelin’s results are divergent but they are based on a single season of data. Shot rates should be more reliable over that time frame and they show them to be virtually identical.

The roles of the defensemen are clearly divergent. Gorges and Subban have clearly been leaned on hard to play the tough minutes. That they generally get some of the stronger results are a good sign of just how good these two are. Markov is clearly been used as a a stronger second pair defender. Emelin and Diaz have about the same role as lesser 2nd pairing guys. Kaberle’s good offensive results are during generally soft minute usage over the last 3 years, which brings some context to why a lesser talent is keeping pace with Subban and Markov who had real defensive responsibilities.

Thanks to behindthenet.ca and stats.hockey.analysis.com for the databases to make this work possible.

March 17th, 2012; Montreal, QC, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Andrei Markov (79) before the game against the New York Islanders at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-US PRESSWIRE

Our two part series on the Habs 2011-12 defensive pairings should have you well informed about how the defensive corp worked last season. Now we can take a look at how the group shapes up for the foreseeable future. Today we look at the established NHL players in the system, while tomorrow we look at the emerging defenseman and the Canadiens crop of defenseman prospects as well as how it could all fit together in the future.

The Top Three:

A hockey club’s top 4 on defense is often discussed, but in many cases its the best three blueliners a team can ice that are the difference makers. A top three would usually represent a team’s primary shutdown pair and the guy carrying the second pairing. For spots 4-6 its more important to have relative competence while its the top half of the group that really decides if the defense succeeds or fails.

For the current Habs, the elite group starts with PK Subban. Any way the results get broken down he’s the key guy in critical situations and the main driver of results on even strength and a critical component of both the power play and penalty kill. As I’ve discussed before, he is one of the top young defensemen in the league, and he and Josh Gorges very much looked like a top notch shutdown pairing the year before. At 23 years old he is the teams top young player and the keystone of the defense for the years to come. Defensemen tend to be their best in their late 20′s, so we can probably expect a lot more from PK in the future.

Gorges took a large step forward last season. In the previous three years he was either a passenger of Andrei Markov or the guy barely holding an inadequate 2nd pairing together saddled with Hal Gill. Last year he began to be a significant player in his own right, where he went, good things happened. Gorges is very limited offensively although he is competent at getting the puck out and moving forward. Its his solid defensive abilities that make him valuable, as one of the league’s premier shotblockers and a reliable defensive presence against top forwards. Gorges lacks the all-round game to be a top defenseman in his own right but he’s a solid compliment to star defensemen, the Jackman or Mitchell to Subban’s Doughty or Pietrangelo. At 27, he has a long prime as a defensive defenseman to look forward to, Montreal should be fine with him as a number 3 defender for the next 5 years or so.

Markov is the wild-card. Formerly a number one defenseman, one of the top offensively defensemen in the league and arguably the league’s best playmaker on defense. Markov hasn’t played significant time for 2 years and only a half season then. If he’s back to form next time the Canadiens play, the Hab’s 1-2 on defense will be the best in the conference. If he gets injured again Montreal won’t have anything resembling a 2nd pair to work with. Its anyone’s guess what the Habs will get from Markov. For long-term, if Markov has made a full recovery the team probably has a number of good seasons left in Markov, even though he’s 33. Top defensemen generally age gracefully, remaining effective towards 35-36 and being good in their 37-40 years is not uncommon. His knee is a concern, but on the other hand he’s avoided 3 years of the NHL grind on his body. Loosing seasons might have extended his career. If the Habs have good fortune they’ll have a top 3 defenseman in Markov for the next 3-5 years. If not they need to fill that whole as soon as possible.

The Veteran Depth:

The Habs have two other veterans under contract, Tomas Kaberle and Francis Boullion.

Kaberle is an interesting case. Like the little girl, at what he’s good at he’s very good, at what he’s bad at he’s horrid. Kaberle is a fine offensive defenseman, excellent at moving the puck and setting up plays. He’s also horrid at anything related to keeping the puck in the net. Under both Martin and Cunneyworth he was part of the team’s best regular powerplay defense pairing with Subban and he’s got a solid record as a powerplay quarterback. The main problem is that the Habs aren’t lacking for offensive blueliners and don’t have the quality depth to shelter him. Kaberle should be pretty good as a 5th defenseman next year for Montreal but in general the Habs probably will look to move him at first opportunity.

The only outside addition to the team’s defense is ex-Hab Francis Boullion. In general Boullion has played a fair amount of ES minutes in Nashville behind the shutdown behemoth that is the Weber-Suter pairing. His results are middling to bad during that time but he at least is NHL level. Next year he should be 3rd pairing or press box with no special teams time in Montreal. Boullion should only be a stopgap on depth until the club can find better internally or externally. The main reason to have him seemed to be that Coach Therrien liked him.

Projected Defensive Depth Chart in 2 years (Established Players)

In pretty much any scenario, two years from now Subban is the teams top right D. Markov is a pretty decent bet to remain the team’s best left sider. Gorges remains in the top six, likely as a right side/left side swing man, playing with one of Markov or Subban. Kaberle and Boullion are since jettisoned.

Tomorrow we continue this feature by looking at the team’s emerging talent on defense.

Feb 11, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Montreal Canadiens defenseman PK Subban (76) retrieves the puck against the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Air Canada Centre. The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

RDS has been reporting that the Philadelphia Flyers have made inquiries on PK Subban.

Which is exactly what I’d be doing if I were the Flyer’s general manager given the mess that’s been made on their defense.

What isn’t clear is why the Canadiens would have any interest in trading Subban. He’s the team’s best skater and the linchpin of the team’s defensive corp. Well known RDS buffoon and purveyor of terrible opinions Bertrand Raymond has suggested that he might clash with new coach Michael Therrien. That would be a ludicrous reason to trade Subban though, if anything its a reason to fire the coach. Even Raymond whose been known to be anti-Subban in the past things a trade is a bad idea though.

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The Canadiens have denied talks apparently but it seems word has leaked from the Philadelphia side. Its also been reported that Flyer’s coach Laviotte insisted that Couturier be off the table. If that’s true, then it says to me the Flyers are no where near committed enough to get this done even if a trade is possible. Subban’s impact easily outclasses Couturier’s, now and in the future and Subban fills a far bigger need for Philadelphia. The only guy the Flyers have that gets me at all interested in moving Subban is Claude Giroux. This isn’t just me being a homer, Flyer’s site Broad Street Hockey agrees.

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Before anyone hyperventilates on this issue it should be noted that all that is reported is that the teams talked. Which is reasonable business practice for Montreal even if they have no intention of trading Subban. It never hurts to get an idea of what other people think your assets are worth.

For what its worth, lets see what a better journalist had to say about the same story (which is probably a non-story).

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[blackbirdpie url="https://twitter.com/EricEngels/status/245913095220908032"]

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Which paints a far more sensible view of things. Plenty of teams want Subban. Habs want to keep Subban. If you over-sheet Subban Montreal opens its massive warchest and matches (maybe counter attacks on offersheets at a later date).

Audience participation time, what kind of deal would the Flyers have to offer to make trading Subban not feel like a screw-job? Post them in the comment section.