It’s also not really about proving something about the Habs. The samples involved in this little analysis are too small to come to much in the way of definitive factual conclusions. This one is really about perceptions.

Specifically, this is about the perception that Desharnais is essential to the scoring performance of his wingers and, consequently, that breaking up the 67-51-72 line would be counter-productive.  At first glance, this seems logical enough: Pacioretty, for example, scored the vast majority of his goals this year (23 out of 33) with Desharnais serving as his center.

Missing from this statement, however, is an important bit of context: Pacioretty also spent the vast majority of his icetime with Desharnais.

Out of curiosity, I went back through all of Pacioretty’s 2011-2012 goals to find out what situation they had been scored in and who was the center at the time, and then used Olivier’s invaluable database to find out how much time Pacioretty had spent with each center in each situation. I then totalled all 5-on-5 data without Desharnais, as DD was by far his most common center. A quick division then gave us the scoring rates of those various combinations.

When looking at this chart, it’s important to keep the sample size in mind, and equally important to put the numbers into perspective.  With 1.47 goals per hour of 5-on-5 icetime, Pacioretty was third in the entire league among players with 40+ games (behind only Stamkos and Malkin!). The 1.30 number with Desharnais may look low when compared to others in this table, but it is an exceptional number: it would have be good for tenth in the league, and beat out names such as Patrick Sharp, Bobby Ryan or James Neal.

But the perception that Pacioretty was a more effective goal-scorer more with Desharnais than other centers, at least at even strength is put into question. Pacioretty scored more goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 icetime (1.63) without Desharnais as his center than he did with him (1.30). The perception exists because Pacioretty scored so many goals, because he played so much with Desharnais, and because he was with Desharnais when he scored most of his goals in absolute terms. But it is really an artifact of the amount of icetime they spent together. It’s unlikely, of course, that Pacioretty would have been able to maintain a 1.63 goals-per-hour scoring rate (let alone 2!) had he played more time with Plekanec or Gomez rather than Desharnais. But the point remains that Pacioretty was a scoring machine, one of the very best left-wingers in the NHL. He is capable of maintaining high rates of goal-scoring with any set of competent linemates.

Now, the point of this exercise is not to suggest that Desharnais isn’t a good player (he is, in fact, very good). It’s not to imply that he has no value (on the contrary: at a mere 800k per year, he’s better value than virtually any other Habs player). It’s not to suggest that he is keeping Pacioretty from scoring at his full potential, dragging Pacioretty down, or otherwise not contributing to his scoring (Pacioretty scored at elite rates with Desharnais as his center).

The point is that the perception that Pacioretty’s goal-scoring increased alongside Desharnais is incorrect, and that decisions and analysis made upon that premise are going to be erroneous as a result. And in a situation where the Habs don’t have enough top-6 forwards to go around, it is important that perceptions about how much player X needs player Y be based in reality and not perceptions. It may be valuable for Michel Therrien, next year, to place the Habs’ best two-way center with its best two-way wingers. Perceptions about how Pacioretty “needs” Desharnais to be effective should not stop him from doing so if it is tactically sound — or vice-versa, for that matter. Both players are very capable; together they are an excellent combination, but when apart, they don’t “need” each other to be effective.

It is also yet another reiteration of some of the most important principles in hockey analysis. Context matters. Our general perceptions often fool us. And straight-up counting stats, the goals-assist-points of fantasy hockey, do not tell us a full story at all.

Mar 12, 2012; Buffalo, NY, USA; Montreal Canadiens left wing Max Pacioretty (67) during play in the game against the Buffalo Sabres at the First Niagara Center. Sabres beat the Canadiens 3-2 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

Habs star winger Max Pacioretty has left the Ambri-Piotta squad of the NLA to come back to Canada.

The official story is that Pacioretty is seeking better medical attention for a supposed infection in his elbow. However there are a number of rumours circulating that Pacioretty is leaving due to a personal conflict with the Ambri coaching staff.

Pacioretty had been benched over the last two games as he has reportedly been out with an illness, but it has been reported that Pacioretty was unhappy with Head Coach Kevin Constantine not playing him and reputedly favouring the players he expects to have in the lineup for the entirely season rather than an a lockout import in Pacioretty. The winger had also on occasion been deployed at defense, a developement that it has been speculated that the winger was also unhappy with.

Difficulties with a star import player has been only one of Constantine’s problems, with reports that owners are unhappy with the state of the bottom feeding Swiss league team, who are last in the NLA with 7 points in 12 games and -17 in goal differential. It has been suggested that he may be replaced as Head Coach soon.

Pacioretty had scored in his first period for Ambri but otherwise was kept off the score sheet in 5 games, the usually prolific goal scorer had been snake bit with only 1 goal in 22 shots (4.5%).

Max Pacioretty has only indicated so far that he is going home for recovery, but don’t be entirely surprised if he’s not soon to go back to Ambri.

Feb 17, 2012; Buffalo, NY, USA; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Raphael Diaz (61) during play in the game against the Buffalo Sabres at the First Niagara Center. The Canadiens beat the Sabres 4-3 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-US PRESSWIRE

We’re heading into the real lockout now, with the NHL announcing that they have cancelled the first two weeks of the regular season.

Andrei Markov has become part of the exodus of NHL talent, joining “The Charleston Chiefs” of the KHL in Vityaz Chekov. For anyone concerned about Markov’s knee, its nice to hear that goons like Trevor Gillies are on his team rather than targeting him.

With our great sorrow that these guys can’t be suiting up for the Habs right now, here’s the update on what they’ve been doing.

Tomas Plekanec showed he’s human, getting shut out of the scoring for the first time in Kladno for game 8. He’s still cruising at a goal and an assist per game in a continuing display of dominance on Jaromir Jagr‘s team. His scoring of ~60 NHLE points seems right within his established talent.

On the same squad, Tomas Kaberle is having a similar go of it with his 4 NHL team mates, although not so dominant.

Max Pacioretty has been snake bit on a team that has struggled. Ambri’s imported top line of Williams-Park-Pacioretty has failed to score in the last 2 games and the team has only 5 goals in the last 3. They sure could use Pacioretty finding the back of the net more frequently, with only one of his 12 shots going in.

Both Yannick Weber and Raphael Diaz seem to be finding life congenial in their native lands, both are producing at a strong clip, on much better teams that Pacioretty’s.

Andreas Engqvist seems to find KHL life preferable to the NHL, he’s gone a respectable .67 PPG but has only 1 goal in 20 shots. Maxim Trunev continues to look like he isn’t worth the time to check up on.

In the Eliteserin, Magnus Nygren is continuing to have a strong campaign, with regular top 4 duty and good offensive numbers. Collberg continues to not get ice time and has a lonely assist to his name. Pribyl would envy him, he can’t get in the lineup at all.

Using available statistics I have been able to cobble together some basic advanced stats for the players in the NLA, SEL and KHL.

Engqvist looks like he’s playing very well as a top six forward in the KHL although is not much of a potential goal scorer with that shot rate. Both Trunev and Collberg look like they are making the most of limited minutes. Nygren seems to be an offensive force at the SEL level, his shot and points rate is big for a prospect defenseman.

Pacioretty has almost the same shot rate in the NLA as the NHL, expect that and his goal scoring to rise dramatically as he adjusts. Weber seems to be putting on a tour de force in shots and Diaz is quite respectable.

Both Hudon and Vail had great starts to their campaigns and are among the top of their league’s scoring races. Bozon is largely meeting expectations. Galchenyuk has shown some definate talent