Montreal Canadiens: What Will Alexander Radulov Extension Look Like?

The Montreal Canadiens proved everyone wrong when they signed Alexander Radulov last summer. They were criticized for the decision to bring the Russian winger back from the KHL. It turns out, the only downside is he’s been so good his next contract will be huge.

The Montreal Canadiens took a bit of a risk when they signed Alexander Radulov. He had been in the KHL for most of the eight years. He also had a bad reputation thanks to some poor choices he made while a member of the Nashville Predators.

All we heard about after the Canadiens inked the Russian winger to a one-year deal worth $5.75 million was that he was not a team player, was lazy, wouldn’t back-check and once missed curfew. The media and fan reaction was overwhelmingly negative.

Radulov was repeatedly compared to Alex Semin who was a failed experiment as a Canadiens winger. The comparisons could not have been proven to be further from the truth. Radulov has been nothing short of excellent for the Canadiens this season.

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The 30 year old winger is second on the roster with 31 points in 38 games this season. He plays hockey with more passion than almost anyone who has ever strapped on skates and celebrates his teammates goals every bit as much as his own.

So much for the lazy, selfish, bad team player storyline there, eh media?

Now that Radulov has proven to be an excellent find, the tough negotiations must begin. It’s time the Canadiens start thinking long and hard about getting Radulov’s name on a contract extension. Due to his strong play, it’s not going to be another one year deal, and you can bet the Russian doesn’t want to take a pay cut.

Finding comparisons for Radulov is difficult

Looking at comparisons for Radulov is difficult. How many players played three seasons in the NHL then went to the KHL for eight and came back to North America for half a season (so far)? The answer is nobody.

So you have to look for players who were about 30 years old and a pending unrestricted free agent. Also, Radulov is on pace for 21 goals, 44 assists and 65 points this season. So, you are looking for players who scored between 60 and 70 points in their contract year.

Over the past three season, a few players fit this description. During last summer’s free agent frenzy, the closest comparable is Kyle Okposo. The gritty yet talented right winger was coming off a season where he scored 22 goals and 42 assists for 64 points. This is almost identical production to Radulov’s pace.

Okposo a surprisingly similar player when looking at the numbers

Okposo played a ton at even strength, was on the first power play and never saw action when shorthanded. This also matches Radulov’s usage by the Canadiens this season. Okposo has a reputation as more of a physical player, but his 90 hits last season aren’t significantly higher than the 67 Radulov is on pace for this season.

Okposo did have age on his side when he became an UFA. He signed his deal at 28 and won’t turn 29 until shortly after this regular season ends. Radulov is 30 and will turn 31 on July 5, just days after he is scheduled to hit the open market.

Okposo signed a seven year contract at six million per season. Since he was three years younger than Radulov will be this summer, you can expect Radulov to sign at a similar cap hit, but not for nearly as long as Okposo did with the Buffalo Sabres.

Steen a different type of player, but one that has similar value

The closest comparable that already re-signed for next season is Alex Steen. Steen scored 24 goals and 40 assists for 64 points for the Blues in 2014-15. Last season, he missed 15 games but scored 17 goals and 25 assists. This is a 21 goal, 52 point pace.

Now, while Steen’s 2014-15 season was on par with Radulov’s offensive production, last season was a bit of a dip points wise. However, Steen also plays a more defensive role and is actually used when the Blues are shorthanded. This makes him a bit of a different type of player, but with very similar scoring totals in 2014-15.

Steen was 32 when he signed a four year extension at $5.75 million per year. Since he was coming off a down year offensively, I would expect Radulov to get a little more money, but on a similar contract length.

A former Hab for a short time reminds one of Radulov as well

Looking back a few offseasons, a former Canadiens winger stands out as a similar player to Radulov. In 2013-14, the Habs traded for Thomas Vanek from the New York Islanders. He started the year with the Buffalo Sabres, played half the season with the Isles and then finished the year with the Habs.

All told, the Austrian winger scored 27 goals and 68 points in 78 games for the trio of NHL squads. He had a disappointing playoff run with the Habs, yet still managed ten points in 17 postseason games.

Vanek was 30 years of age when he hit the open market and signed a three-year contract with the Minnesota Wild for six million per season. There were some family ties that linked him to the Wild, and maybe he could have received a longer term elsewhere, but wanted to head to Minnesota.

So what’s the price to pay for Radulov?

Having said that, I would expect Radulov to come in around the same cap hit, but he may be able to get an extra year. Vanek played a very similar role to Radulov, was a surprisingly great setup man like Radulov

Having looked back on the three most recent comparables, I would expect Radulov to sign a four year contract extension at $6.0 million per year. This would be a slight raise on his current $5.75 million cap hit, but with obviously far more term.

This is certainly a manageable cap hit for the Habs. They are already paying the Russian winger $5.75 million, so to move that up to six isn’t a drastic change in their payroll heading into the next few seasons.

Radulov has proven to be a fantastic first line winger for the Canadiens. To get him locked up for four more years at six million would be a great contract for the team. It would also be a great contract for the player. Let’s hope the team sees this as well. With an impending expansion draft looming, there is no reason to waste time.

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Radulov has proven to be a keeper for this team. They would be wise to sign the contract sooner than later. They can then worry about the expansion draft in the spring.