Habs 2015-16 Season: Final Pre-Season Look

Sep 26, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Montreal Canadiens forward

Zack Kassian

(8) takes down Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman

Mark Fraser

(54) during a fight in the first period at the Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Kassian Saga

Marc Bergevin had a news conference explaining the team’s position on the Zack Kassian incident and other issues. Kassian apparently broke his foot and nose in the accident. The timing, 6 am, is very curious, and he was with 2 girls – one 18-year-old and one 20-year-old who was the driver at the time of the incident. No timeline has been given for Kassian’s return, but it will at the very least allow Jacob De La Rose and/or Devante Smith-Pelly to get a longer look before more difficult decisions are made.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Habs waive or deal Kassian at this point. Bergevin pointed to his placing a huge emphasis on character when making player decisions. In this case, being out joy-riding at 6 am with a 20-year-old under the influence doesn’t seem like the type of guy Bergevin aims to bring aboard. We’ll come up with some options the Habs may have, but how nice would it be to bring Prust back at this point?

Habs Final Cuts

Sep 25, 2014; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens left wing Charles Hudon (75) before the game against Colorado Avalanche at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports

The Habs made the following final four cuts:

Charles Hudon: He really does need more work defensively and needs to be part of the top three lines when he does get the call up to Montreal. Could also become trade bait if the deal is right;
Sven Andrighetto: Thought he did well but skated around frantically too often. May not be more than a 4th liner in the end;
Dustin Tokarski: This one wasn’t even close. While many didn’t even recognize Mike Condon’s name when the pre-season began, they sure got to like him a lot once they saw him play. Tokarski, meanwhile, continued to perform in the mediocre range. It’s unfortunate that he couldn’t recreate the playoff magic from a few years ago, but at least he’ll get the playing time he needs in St-John’s to get back into form; and
Mark Barberio: If it wasn’t for the restrictive contracts the Habs were dealing with, there’s a chance Barberio would have remained with the club. He certainly performed well enough to make the team and will surely be first-in-line when the Habs need a replacement.

THE 2016 HABS PER NUMBERS, BASED ON RUKKUS.COM GRAPH

Credit to www.rukkus.com for providing this graph.

We can use this graph to come up with some expectations about what we should expect this season.

Only 7 teams have more homegrown players than the Habs;
This is even more impressive when you consider that only 13 teams have had worse draft positions than the Habs;
While most people aren’t fans of the +/- stat, you can see from this graph how telling it is in predicting success and failure. The worse teams have the worse, and the best seem to be well above 100;
The number of playoff games is an interesting once since it doesn’t really predict anything, but it does tell us that the Habs are amongst the most playoff experienced in the NHL;
The Habs are among a hand-full of teams without a single player that has a ring. That should be used as motivation more than anything;
The Habs are the 11th youngest team in the NHL, which is strange considering their being among the leaders in playoff experience;
The size chart is a strange one because I’m not sure it says much unless the difference is at least an inch. For those wondering, the Habs sizing was done with Kassian included, so we can probably bring it down a notch; and
Ten teams are heavier than the Habs, meaning that 2/3 of the time they have at least a slight weight advantage on their opponents. Not sure if that really helps them, but it at least means they match up well in terms of physical play.

So to sum this graph up, the Habs are in the youngest third of teams, have a lot of playoff experience but not one player has a ring, and they have the size needed to play a physical style of hockey. A good portion of Habs players are homegrown despite the Habs having one of the least favourable draft positions. Not a bad looking season coming up if you take this graph into consideration! Thanks again to rukkus for providing it!

LINES AND PAIRINGS AT MONDAY PRACTICE

I’m happy with the majority of the lines and pairings, but do have a couple of points to make about the lines and pairings we saw Monday.

Oct 1, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman

Nathan Beaulieu

(28) scores a goal against Ottawa Senators goalie

Craig Anderson

(41) during the first period at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

First, Nathan Beaulieu skated with Tom Gilbert on the third defensive pairing. He was by far the most effective Habs defenseman this pre-season and deserved a shot to play alongside Jeff Petry. By having him on the third pairing, Therrien is cutting his minutes by at least 4 and is making it harder to line up the PP units. I don’t like this at all and hope it changes asap.

Second, I don’t like Jacob De La Rose playing with Mitchell and Flynn. To me, it nullifies any impact they could have on the scoresheet and makes it close to impossible for them to take advantage of Mitchell’s great face-off skills. JDLR should be in St-John’s, and anyone else should be their winger. I guess Kassian can re-inherit that slot once he’s healthy – IF the Habs don’t cut him loose first.

DIVISIONAL RIVALS

Tampa Bay (108) Prediction = 106 points

The Lightning are the Habs’ kryptonite in the playoffs and definitely owned them last season as well. They’re fast, tenacious, and they’ve got one of the most underrated goalies in Ben Bishop who benefits from the workhorse calibre of Viktor Hedman. This team is not going anywhere and should be a playoff favourite once again.

Detroit (100) Prediction = 92 points

I have a feeling that the Wings will experience their first major set back this season. I’m not talking 50-60 points, but somewhere in the lower 90s seems to fit. Their best players are getting older, Mike Babcock is gone, and they may not have the speed to match other teams.

Ottawa (99) Prediction = 93 points

The surprise story of 2014-15, the Sens are young, talented, and led by a Norris trophy winner that just doesn’t quit. Sure, they got one of the best stretches from an unpredictable place in net when Hammond led them to the playoffs, but that team pulled together and knows that on any given night, they can beat the best of them.

Boston (96) Prediction = 86 points

Milan Lucic is gone, Zdeno Chara doesn’t seem like himself anymore, and this team’s identity is up in the air. Like Detroit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a step back, allowing Florida to leapfrog both for a playoff spot.

Florida (91) Prediction = 100 points

Young, talented, fast, and now more experienced, I fully expect this year’s Panthers to be last year’s Predators. Barkov should take a huge step forward this season and Jaromir Jagr has all of the leadership abilities they need to keep them settled all year-long.

Toronto (68) Prediction = 78 points

Mike Babcock can only do so much with the group he has been given. He’s no miracle worker. They don’t have a true number 1 goaltender, they lack defensive discipline, and they’re just not talented enough to score enough goals to compensate for that. It’s going to be another long year in T.O.

Buffalo (54) Prediction = 76 points

The biggest jump ahead will come from Buffalo in the Atlantic division. They’ve added some true top-6 forwards and will now get to enjoy Evander Kane‘s contribution after he sat out injured for much of last season. They’re nowhere near playoff calibre, but after last season’s horrific performance, a 22 point jump isn’t too bad.

Sep 25, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens goalie

Carey Price

(31) makes a save against Chicago Blackhawks forward

Daniel Paille

(36) during the second period at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

What about the Habs you ask?

Montreal (110) Prediction = 112 points

There’s no reason to expect anything less and I believe that the increase in offensive output from the top 3 lines will lead to even more success for the Habs in 2015-16. Their PP should be better, and their defensive top 6 are more experienced and capable than they were last season. They have more depth than last season, and are therefore better equipped to deal with injuries. Couple than with the best goaltender in the NHL, a newly minted Captain, and arguably the top defenseman in the league, and you’ve got a recipe for success.

The Drive for 25 begins this week! May it bring us many rings and a massive cup to drink out of!!

Next: Montreal Canadiens: Are Therriens' Lines Set?

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