Dustin Tokarski: Canadiens G a Trade Candidate?

Dustin Tokarski: Canadiens G a Trade Candidate?

The Montreal Canadiens have an excellent goaltending tandem, one that took them very far last year. There is absolutely no need to make any changes on that front, and there’s something to be said for continuity, for the influence Carey Price may be having on Dustin Tokarski, and for knowing what you have in-house. Still, sometimes, changes can be made to benefit the team in the long-run instead of periodically in the present, something that may be more appealing to Habs management.

We’ve already taken a look at the possibility of David Desharnais being dealt this season if Marc Bergevin feels it would make the Habs better. More recently, we’ve spoke about the rise of Condon as a viable backup to Carey Price. With that in mind, we now want to take a look at what Dustin Tokarksi’s value may be on the trade market, and what the return may look like.

In order to do this in a plausible way, we’ll first take a look at his statistics, and then recent deals made involving goaltending prospects and/or backups.

May 14, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens goalie Dustin Tokarski (35) stall at the Bell Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

DUSTIN TOKARSKI: Regular Season Stats:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/27/2015.

DUSTIN TOKARSKI: Playoff Stats:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/27/2015.

Jun 30th, 2015: SJ deals for Martin Jones, send a 1st rd pick and F Sean Kuraly to BOS

Sep 22, 2015; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; San Jose Sharks goaltender Martin Jones (31) and defenseman

(88) defends against Vancouver Canucks defenseman Ben Hutton (60) during the first period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Martin Jones Stats:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/27/2015.

Sean Kuraly hasn’t played in the NHL, scoring 29 pts in 40 games with Miami U RedHawks

Thoughts: This is a slightly higher return to the value Tokarski should have on the trade market. Although, when we look at the stats both offer, Tokarski isn’t very far behind.

Jun 27th, 2015: NYR deal for Antti Raanta, send F Ryan Haggerty to CHI

Sep 22, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Rangers goalie Antti Raanta (32) makes a save off the shot attempt of Philadelphia Flyers center

(49) during the second period at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Antti Raanta stats:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/27/2015.

Meanwhile, Haggerty (22) hasn’t played in the NHL, managing 33 pts in 76 games for Hartford (AHL).

Thoughts: Clearly this was a steal for the Rangers. Any time you can get a viable backup, possibly an eventual #1, in return for an AHL forward who may never crack the lineup, you’ve done well.

Jun 27th, 2015: CAR deal for Eddie Lack, send a 3rd (2015) and 7th rd pick (2016) from VAN

Apr 21, 2015; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Vancouver Canucks goalie Eddie Lack (31) guards his net against the Calgary Flames during the first period in game four of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

Eddie Lack Stats:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/27/2015.

The 3rd rd pick wound up being Guillaume Brisebois, a 6’1″ 175 lbs defenseman out of Acadie-Bathurst of the QMJHL.

Thoughts: If you ask me, this is where the conversation starts for Marc Bergevin. A 3rd and 7th rd pick seems like the least the Habs could get in return for Tokarski. Anything less wouldn’t be worth the deal.

Jan 14th, 2015: MIN deal for Devan Dubnyk, send a 3rd rd pick to PHX

Thoughts: This isn’t a direct comparable, but more of an example of what Tokarski could become if placed in the right situation. Dubnyk’s an extremely under-rated goaltender, but still – and again – a third round pick seems to be the minimum we should expect if the value is similar. When we consider ceiling, contract, and age, Tokarski actually has a lot to offer.

WHO NEEDS G HELP?

The following teams are the 2 teams I consider as the weakest at G. Any of these could be trade partners for Marc Bergevin. I throw out a few hail mary’s in terms of what the possible return could look like.

Arizona:

• If any team should be trading for a goaltender, it’s the Coyotes. Mike Smith is ok but getting older, and Anders Lindback is a mediocre backup. They do lack a 4th rd pick, however, since it was included in their Keith Yandle deal last year. Of course my hope, instead, would be for the Habs to deal for Antoine Vermette and use him on the 3rd line. Vermette is a well-above-average face off centre with enough skill to add some scoring to the 3rd line.
• If not Vermette, the return here could be a 2nd rd pick OR a 3rd and 6th rd pick.

Buffalo:

• Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson are expected to fight for the top role in Buffalo on a completely revamped team. Is there any doubt that Tokarski’s addition would be welcomed competition and depth for the struggling franchise?
• In this case, the return would simply be draft picks. Interestingly, the Sabres have 3 third rd draft picks, making them more likely to be willing to part with one in return for Tokarski. Having the three 3rd rounders may also make them more open to dealing the 2nd rd pick. With a 3rd rounder, you can add in a 6th and it may be the best return the Habs can expect from the Sabres.
• Another point of note reference the Sabres is that the Habs have dealt with them twice recently, acquiring both Torrey Mitchell and Brian Flynn from them before last year’s playoffs.

It’s hard to say whether the depth the Habs have in goaltending behind Carey Price will be kept around as a safe guard or whether it will be used to ensure the Habs remain young and skillful. What we do know for certain is that right now, they have a luxury of depth at the position and know what Tokarski can provide them with as a backup. Should they decide to go another way and use Mike Condon as a backup, they’re likely to either seek something that helps them this year, or picks to help them maintain depth in the future.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Dustin Tokarski is a nice backup. He played in 16 games last year, maintaining a .500 record overall and decent – not remarkable – statistics. The question becomes, would Mike Condon be a better option? Tokarski doesn’t make much ($562,500) and will be a restricted FA next year. That’s only $37,500 more than Condon would make, so this decision would not be a financial one.

Jun 18, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Blackhawks center Antoine Vermette (80) holds the Stanley Cup during the 2015 Stanley Cup championship rally at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

I completely believe that unless the Habs get something that helps them this year, such as Antoine Vermette, they’re not going to deal either goaltender. They have the ability to keep Condon in the AHL, have the benefit of security at the G position, something Tokarski already has experience doing, and can wait for a team to be more needy before making a deal. If a playoff contender has a serious G issue, the Habs could use their depth to get maximum value for Tokarski. This time of the year is not really conducive to such trades unless teams are forced to make a deal due to roster numbers crunch. In this case, there’s no roster issue.

Having said that, the Habs do have a Jarred Tinordi decision to make, something that could result in a deal being sought before the season begins. Could they pair them up and send them to a team like Buffalo who could use some oomph on D and goaltending depth? Doesn’t seem too far-fetched to me. The question in that case would be who the Habs want to get in return if it’s someone that helps them this year.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dustin Tokarski being dealt this season since he does carry some value and would be a nice depth piece for some teams. However, I also believe that Marc Bergevin will be weary about dealing his backup goaltender when he knows the Habs have huge Cup aspirations and can’t afford to seek out a G if an injury were to occur. With that in mind, I put the chances of his being dealt at 40/60, with the Coyotes as the most likely trade partners due to their signing of Vermette. If a deal is made, look for it to be made if the Coyotes fall out of the playoff race.

Now that’s a hail Mary!

Next: Dustin Tokarski Sent to Hamilton Bulldogs on a Conditioning Stint

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