A Winning Habit
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Montreal Canadiens Drive for 25: Next, Suivant!!!

By Mat Germain

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Apr 26, 2015; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Montreal Canadiens head coach Michel Therrien reacts during a press conference after the game six against Ottawa Senators of the first round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports

Montreal Canadiens Drive for 25: Next, Suivant!!!

That’s one happy Michel Therrien! And this after being hounded over chances everyone wanted to see. What a difference a day makes, or one great Carey Price performance. As we enjoy the feeling of triumph over the Ottawa Senators, let’s take a look at what lies ahead for the Habs and Price.

The two opponents duelling it out for a shot at the Canadiens are the Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Wings are current up 3-2 in the series after blanking the Lightning 4-0 in their latest win. They go head-to-head tonight for Game 6.

Just by mentioning these teams I already know which one fans would rather face, based on the Habs history in the regular season. However, the Habs were also 1-3 vs the Senators, and they made out alright in the first round.

Let’s assume the “worse case” scenario first (Lightning), then the “best case” (Red Wings).

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING VS MONTREAL CANADIENS

Season series

23. Final. 0. 152. 5

Lopsided enough for you?

The more worrisome part, however, is that the only player with more than 2 points for the Habs over the entire 5 games is Tomas Plekanec (1G, 3A) with 4 points.

If you thought the Habs had issues scoring against the Senators, this would be even worse. The reason?

Ben Bishop: 5 – 0, 1.59 GAA, .933 save%, faced an avg of 24 shots per game

In comparison,

Carey Price: 0 – 4 – 1, 3.47 GAA, .906 save%, faced an avg of 34 shots per game

Clearly, the Habs net minder and D has issues against the Tampa Bay Lightning, as does the entire Montreal Canadiens team.

So who is doing the damage for the Lightning?

There are 5 players and goaltender Ben Bishop that give the Habs issues:

  1. Steven Stamkos: 5G, 2A, 7Pts (3 PP goals), 18:31 TOI
  2. Vladislav Namestnikov: 3G, 3A, 6Pts, 12:11 TOI
  3. Victor Hedman: 2G, 4A, 6Pts, 21:02 TOI
  4. Nikita Kucherov: 1G, 4A, 5Pts, 14:46 TOI
  5. Ondrej Palat: 1G, 4A, 5Pts, 15:32 TOI

They have another 5 players with 3 points a piece and Jonathan Drouin who missed one game but gave the Habs issues in each game.

The Lightning were able to do to the Habs during the regular season what the Habs did to the Senators the first 3 games, roll 4 lines and get scoring from all of them.

DISCIPLINE

One area that really hurt the Habs in the 5 games regular season series was Penalties.

  • Canadiens had a total of 69 PIM
  • Lightning had 51 PIM
  • Canadiens scored 2 PP goals
  • Lightning scored 7 PP goals
  • The 7 goals were 33% of their goals in the 5 game series (21 total)

Not only were the Lightning more disciplined, and with Stamkos leading the way, the Habs – should they face the Lightning – would not be able to afford spending much time in the box at all.

PLAYING FROM BEHIND

The Habs were down the following to begin 3 of 5 games after the first or second period:

  1. 13 Oct 14: Down 2 – 0 after the first
  2. 6 Jan 15: Up 1 – 0 after first, Down 4 – 1 after the second
  3. 10 Mar 15: Tie through game, lost in OT
  4. 16 Mar 15: Down 2 – 0 after the first
  5. 30 Mar 15: No score in 1st, Down 3 – 1 after second period

When you’re playing a team with the depth and skill of the Lightning, playing from behind is a recipe for disaster. Not only do you have to be more aggressive which leads to more penalties, but you’re opening up play and allowing guys like Stamkos to use the resulting open space to display his talents. Should the Habs face the Lightning, this can’t happen.

DRIVE FOR 25: WINNING RECIPE

It’s a simplification of the process, but I pointed to some key points above for a reason. The playoffs are an entirely different season. The Habs can beat the Lightning 4 games in a series of 7 games. They’ve done it before, and they can do it again. If they can actually score when they get a PP and stay out of the penalty box, as well as score the first goal in most games, I truly believe they can be successful if they face the Lightning.

That’s the winning recipe. Well, that and shut down Steven Stamkos, score on Ben Bishop, ect…

It’s no easy feat, but it’s not one the Habs would shy from.

Michel Therrien and his coaching staff are going to get some well rested players, time to analyze the opposition to get ready for the next series, and they’re going to be rested as well. After hearing him praise the work of Lars Eller and others on the club after the win against the Sens, I have faith that he’ll make the right call and make changes should they be warranted in the next series. The changes he made in Game 6 proved he was willing and able to do it, even if pressure had to come directly from the players to make it happen.

I’ll take a look at the Red Wings in my next post. For now, rest easy knowing that the Lightning can only tie up the series today, so we get another shot to watch the Red Wings win the series. I think it would also be worthwhile to watch the game tonight and see how great both these teams really are.

As the Habs drive for 25, the next opponent is called up,

“NEXT, SUIVANT!” 

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