Montreal Canadiens Possession Stats Need To Improve If They Are To Win Atlantic Division
The Montreal Canadiens are off to a solid start to the 2014-15 National Hockey League season. Their 9-4-1 record has them tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins for the most points in the Eastern Conference.
However, the closer you look at the Canadiens, the less excited you become over their chances to stay atop the NHL standings.
A recent 1-3-1 slide was followed up by a tough 2-1 shootout win over the lowly Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres are at the bottom of the NHL standings, and already have visions of Connor McDavid dancing in their heads, so giving up a point to them is actually somewhat concerning.
Nov 5, 2014; Buffalo, NY, USA; Montreal Canadiens right wing P.A. Parenteau (15) scores on Buffalo Sabres goalie Michal Neuvirth (34) to win the game during the shootout at First Niagara Center. Canadiens beat the Sabres 2-1 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
What has plagued this Habs team since they beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 on home ice is their lack of offense. Three goals is enough to win a game with solid goaltending, but have failed to do so in their last six games, and have only reached the three goal plateau once in their last eight games.
Why has their scoring suddenly dried up after scoring 20 times in their first six games? Luckily, websites such as war-on-ice.com, stats.hockeyanalysis.com and puckalytics.com, we can dive a little deeper into what is going on with the Habs.
Right now, the Canadiens rank 20th in the NHL in Fenwick percentage at 5 on 5 in close situation. A Fenwick is a shot on goal or a shot attempt, and using even strength situations measures a team’s ability to control the play at 5 on 5.
That is not all that inspiring, but it is early in the season, and there is plenty of time to turn things around. The Habs Corsi is currently at 49.5% in 5 on 5 close situations, but that has them 21st in the NHL.
What is somewhat difficult to figure out, is the Canadiens are a bottom ten team in close situation, but are somehow one of the best teams in the league when they are playing from behind.
Nov 2, 2014; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price (31) makes a save against Calgary Flames center Josh Jooris (86) during the third period at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports
If you account for all 5 on 5 play, regardless of the score, the Habs suddenly shoot up to 10th in the NHL in Corsi, and 16th in Fenwick at 50.6%. This has a lot to do with the Habs huge comebacks early in the year against the Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals.
Falling behind and then suddenly being so great you can comeback is not only impossible to maintain over a full season, it has already caught up to the Habs. They outplayed the Edmonton Oilers last week, but fell behind and could not get back in the game, before falling behind the Calgary Flames and Chicago Blackhawks, and being blown out.
An odd stat that is hurting the Habs Fenwick right now is they have played against the top three shot blocking teams in the league in the Calgary Flames twice, the Colorado Avalanche and the Buffalo Sabres. Due to this, the Habs have had 199 of their shot attempts blocked so far this season, second in the entire league. It will be interesting to see if their Corsi starts to climb when they teams that aren’t known for blocking so many shots attempts.
Though it does not look like the Canadiens will be able to stay atop the Eastern Conference this season, it is not all doom and gloom for the immediate future of this team. The Habs are currently 20th in the league in shooting percentage, and 23rd in PDO.
With good offensive weapons in Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec, P.A. Parenteau and so on, you can bet the team’s shooting percentage will climb in the near future. It is not entirely the reason why the Habs haven’t been scoring lately, but it looks like a bout of bad luck has hit the team.
Oct 27, 2014; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers goalie Ben Scrivens (30) makes a save in a game against Montreal Canadiens left wing Max Pacioretty (67) in the first period at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Chris LaFrance-USA TODAY Sports
In fact, PDO is supposed to measure the amount of “luck” a team is benefiting from. It measures a team’s shooting percentage plus their save percentage, and should hover very near 100%. The Canadiens are currently at 99.0, with a mediocre 5 on 5 save percentage of 91.77.
Considering Carey Price has posted a save percentage of a whisker below 93% over the past three seasons, you can expect that to jump in the near future.
Speaking of Price, the Habs have one of the best goaltenders in the league, and even if they get their possession stats to 50%, you would expect Price to be the difference in them winning far more games than they lose.
The Habs are off to a great start to this season, but will have to be better if they want to keep their spot at the top of the Eastern Conference. They may have been a bit lucky thus far this season, however, they will continue to be lucky to have Price in net all season, and he will carry them into the postseason himself.
If they want to be more than a playoff contender, the Habs will have to start spending more time in their opponent’s zone.