November 23, 2011; Raleigh, NC, USA; Montreal Canadiens right wing Brian Gionta (21) scores the game winner in a shoot out against the Carolina Hurricanes goalie Cam Ward (30) at the RBC center. The Canadiens defeated the Hurricanes 4-3. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-US PRESSWIRE

Components of Offense: Canadiens Wingers

Yesterday we broke down the Habs’ center’s offense in shots and shooting percentage terms. Today we continue with the wingers. The last 3 years of data was used for each player except Pacioretty, whose 2009-10 season is so different then his later ones that I felt it would be unfair to include it. These are the wingers with significant track records that will be in the Habs lineup next season as well as ex Habs A. Kostitsyn and Cammalleri for comparison.

Personal shots per 60

Shooting%

Goals Scored per 60

Teammate Shots per 60

Teamate Shooting%

Team On Ice Shots per 60

Team Goals per 60

Percentage of Team Shots

Pacioretty

11.88

10.20

1.21

21.57

7.22

33.45

2.77

35.52

Bourque

8.60

12.40

1.07

17.83

6.13

26.43

2.16

32.54

Cole

8.52

12.20

1.04

21.75

7.40

30.27

2.65

28.15

Gionta

10.64

9.02

0.96

23.08

6.85

33.72

2.54

31.55

Armstrong

5.32

14.50

0.77

21.80

7.79

27.12

2.47

19.62

Prust

4.52

9.77

0.44

22.33

7.07

26.85

2.02

16.83

Moen

5.88

7.10

0.42

19.38

7.19

25.26

1.81

23.28

Cammalleri

8.40

10.93

0.92

20.70

7.84

29.10

2.54

28.87

A Kostitsyn

8.42

8.66

0.73

20.42

9.21

28.84

2.61

29.20

Pacioretty naturally stands out as the monster of even strength goal scorers, but he gets top marks in every other category as well. His massive shooting rate doesn’t come at the expensive of his team-mates and results in a big team shot rate which translates into the leading team on ice-scoring rate. At 22-23, Pacioretty is the Canadiens most dangerous offensive player and looks towards a future as a top offensive winger in his prime in Montreal.

He’s finished at just above league average for a forward and is unlikely to face a serious decline in his conversion rate. Cole seems the top guy after Pacioretty. He doesn’t manage quite the Herculean shot rates but makes up for it with a high natural shooting percentage. But the rest of the team does well with Cole on the ice as well, just as well as they do with Pacioretty, but not quite the same level in goal scoring.

Gionta has the second best shot taking rate as well as the top on ice shots rate. Gionta is something of a spray and pray shooter with a lower than average shooting%. His high shot rate makes him as dangerous a goal scorer as anyone but Pacioretty and helps led to a respectable team offense with him on the ice.

Bourque’s goal scoring closely mirrors Cole’s. The thing is that Bourque’s goalscoring seems to come at the expense of his team-mates. Bourque’s not much better at goalscoring than Cole and Gionta but while they scored about 35-40% of their teams goals while Bourque is scoring about 50%. It would seem that its very hard for another forward to take a shot with Bourque on the ice. This 3 year rate also is more flattering the Bourque than he seems to deserve at this point, it includes a good season in 2009-10 for Bourque while the following 2 are far worse. Expect to see this in more depth as a subject of future works here.

New Hab Colby Armstrong is more interesting. He had a terrible time in 2011-12 in Toronto, plagued by injuries. But overall, his 3 year results look pretty solid. An efficient goal scorer that doesn’t impede his linemates. If Armstrong has fully recovered, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him a more effective player than Bourque.

Prust and Moen are offensive non-entities. Moen for his low shots and brutal shooting%, Prust just for the lack of shots. Prust is a little better but both are likely beneath the offensive talent of a great AHL forward.

Cammalleri and Kostitsyn largely mirror each other, which makes sense given how much they played together during this time. Cammalleri was the stronger goal scorer on shooting percentage but they shot at about the same rate with about the same team results. They were probably about equivalent even strength forwards during this time, with Cammalleri’s advantage being his powerplay acumen. The look like they were somewhat behind Cole and Gionta as even strength offensive forwards.

Average corsiRel QoC

Average Zone Start Ratio

Pacioretty

0.275

50.7

Bourque

0.942

50.6

Cole

0.515

50.2

Gionta

0.801

50.6

Armstrong

0.359

46.9

Prust

-0.239

42.3

Moen

0.520

46.8

Cammalleri

0.699

50.2

A Kostitsyn

0.477

50.6

Usage is pretty similar across  the wingers, not nearly the distinctions between the centermen. Moen, Armstrong and Prust clearly are being used in more a defensive context. Bourque has gotten some pretty heavy attention from the opposition, which does excuse him a bit for his lesser results while Pacioretty does have the advantage of more sheltered use.

Goals per 82

On Ice Goals per 82

Pacioretty

23.2

53.0

Bourque

20.4

41.3

Cole

19.9

50.7

Gionta

18.4

48.6

Armstrong

14.8

47.3

Prust

8.4

38.6

Moen

8.0

34.6

Cammalleri

17.6

48.6

A Kostitsyn

14.0

49.9

The similarity of the scoring forwards (A.Kost, Cammalleri, Gionta and Cole) is apparent here, with Pacioretty as the clear leader. Armstrong comes in behind while Prust and Moen’s offensive weaknesses are obvious. The necessity of PP time to get over the 20 goal plateau for most wingers should be obvious here.

Thanks to behindthenet.ca and stats.hockey.analysis.com for the databases to make this work possible.

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Tags: Andrei Kostitsyn Brian Gionta Erik Cole Max Pacioretty Mike Cammalleri Montreal Canadiens Rene Bourque Travis Moen

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